The Stayers’ Hurdle is one of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival, attracting some of the best long-distance hurdlers in the sport. For those betting on horse racing, identifying key trends can help pinpoint the most likely contenders. Examining race results from previous renewals, we can identify several patterns that have shaped recent winners.
Age trends
A strong age trend has emerged in recent editions of the Stayers’ Hurdle, with 10 of the last 12 winners being aged between six and eight.
This suggests that younger, progressive hurdlers often have the edge over their older rivals in this stamina-testing contest.
Market position
Despite its prestige, the Stayers’ Hurdle is not always a race for the favourite. Only three of the last 12 winners have gone off as the market leader, though five of the last 12 winners were among the top three in the betting markets.
This highlights the importance of focusing on well-fancied runners while also considering those just behind the market leader.
Last run performance
Strong recent form is a key factor, with six of the last 12 winners having won their previous start. Additionally, nine of the last 12 winners had their final prep race within 80 days of the Stayers’ Hurdle.
The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham has been a useful trial, with four winners emerging from that race in the last 12 years—two of whom won and another who placed.
Course and distance form
Experience at Cheltenham is a notable advantage, as 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at the track, while six had already won there.
The ability to see out the 23–25-furlong trip is crucial, with nine of the last 12 winners having had at least three prior runs over this distance, and eight boasting at least one win over the trip.
Hurdling experience and ratings
The statistics suggest that proven hurdlers thrive in this contest. 11 of the last 12 winners had at least eight prior hurdle runs, while all but one had recorded at least three career victories in this sphere.
Moreover, 10 of the last 12 winners had four or more hurdle wins. Class also plays a role, with nine of the last 12 winners holding a rating of 154 or higher and boasting at least one Grade 1 victory.
Season form
Recent performances in the same campaign often provide a strong indicator of success. 10 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs earlier in the season, while eight of them had already recorded at least one win.
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Market leader and defending Stayers’ Hurdle champion Teahupoo is going to have to buck some of these trends if he is to retain the crown on the third day of the Festival.
8/1 outsider for Nicky Henderson, six-year-old Lucky Place is an interesting option. Indeed, this will be his eighth run over hurdles, and he hasn’t proven himself over the trip.
However, he has two wins from as many outings this season, and his Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at this course in January suggests that he could be suited to the Stayers’ Hurdle.
